One of the most controversial and confusing topics when it comes to guns is the issue of risk.

The determination of risk is central to the public health approach to (gun) violence, going back to Arthur Kellermann’s influential and controversial work such as “Gun Ownership as a Risk Factor for Homicide in the Home.” I have dealt with this previously. The data and methods can be problematic, and so the conclusions cannot be taken at face value. Suffice it to say that risk in the public health perspective is understood as the likelihood of a particular negative outcome occurring in some study population, and risk factors are those things that increase likelihood of that negative outcome.

For example, taking Kellerman’s findings at face value for the sake of argument (but see my assessment), the risk of being a homicide victim is 2.7 times higher if a gun or…